Who should be freeing Iran?

The question nobody seems to know the answer to.

We all know by now the the USA and President Trump joined in the war between Israel and Iran by engaging B-2 stealth bombers that struck at Iran's three nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.

Initial reports declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been destroyed. We are now hearing differing reports. Time will tell whether Iran continues its nuclear weapons program or not. Either way, the conflict is far from over.

File vision shows a B-2 bomber dropping two GBU-57 bombs.

Since President Trump’s cap locked declaration of peace, many Iranian voices have come out in anger, claiming that they have been abandoned once again in their fight against the terrorist oppressive Islamic Republic regime that has held them down for 46 years.

This is an important discussion point. Who should be freeing Iran? Who’s responsibility is it to bring down the final blow to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? Is it the United States job? Is it Israel’s job? Is it the role of the United Nations? Or is it now in the hands of the people of Iran to mobilise and promote their own leadership?

Iran is a country of over 90 million people.¹ A multicultural nation consisting of Persians, Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Lurs, and other ethnic and cultural groups. The story of what this proud nation has suffered through under the Islamic Republic is nothing short of a tragedy. Other than the moronic ‘wokifada’ cult, we all want to see the people of Iran free from their theocratic, murderous leaders, but is it anyone else’s responsibility other than the people of Iran?

In a perfect world, many would like to see the Islamic Republic of Iran deposed and transition into a thriving democracy, but it’s not that simple.

On October 7, 2001, the US invaded Afghanistan to avenge the al-Qaida-orchestrated September 11 terrorist attacks. The primary aim of the US invasion was to hunt down Osama bin Laden and punish the Taliban for providing safe haven to al-Qaida leaders. Twenty years later, the militants are back in power.

The United States spent approximately $2.3 trillion on the war in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021.² The United States lost a total of 2,459 military personnel in Afghanistan. Of these, 1,922 were killed in action, and 20,769 were wounded in action.³

And for what? The moment US troops left Afghanistan the Taliban took over.

Iran is a different fish altogether. Iran is notoriously difficult to invade due to its rugged mountainous terrain, vast deserts, and strategic depth that challenge even the most advanced militaries.

Added to that is the pressure from the isolationists in the US, as well as the woke pressure from the left who believe deescalation and diplomacy can influence psychopaths. If we have learnt anything over the past 20 months it’s that Occupation has become a dirty word—a word that no government wants to be associated with.

Israel do not have the numbers or the inclination to occupy Iran. Although they would love regime change, it is for the singular reason of their own existential safety. They understand that under extremist Islamic rule, they will continue to be a target for extermination.

I’m not even going to seriously hypothesise the United Nations as potential peace makers. The UN has become nothing more than a a shameful den of dictatorships with bias and hidden agendas. You may as well send in the Mickey Mouse Club.

“The prospects of political change in Iran hinge significantly on the capability to construct an inclusive coalition that encompasses sectors with varying and even contradictory perspectives.”⁴

So that leaves the people of Iran. Protests in Iran have been a regular fixture over the years, but now it seems the window of opportunity has opened. Many of the Regime leaders have been assassinated by Israel, their organisation chart in chaos, the Supreme Leader in hiding.

What we understand from history, is that if a new leadership doesn’t rise up in Iran, the country could well end up in years long civil-war, or worse, the leadership vacuum could be replaced by and even more extremist, more violent regime. If a more moderate, democratic option doesn’t present itself, you can be sure that the zealots and the crazies will be ready to step up.

Iranians gather during a protest to voice their anger after their province’s lifeblood river dried up due to drought and diversion, in the central city of Isfahan, on Nov. 19, 2021.

Iran has never been weaker than it is now. However the regime will take out its anger on the people. The government has arrested hundreds of people on charges of espionage and collaborating with Israel, and they will likely be executed. As always, the Iranian people will likely pay the greatest price for this war, but they also have the most to win, and now seems like their best opportunity to exact that change.

"It's extremely doubtful that it would be possible to bring about a regime change like that from the outside, with the push of a button," said Eckart Woertz, the head of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies in Hamburg. "If it did come to that, whether things would then go in the right direction is a whole other question."⁵

The toppling of a 46 year old repressive regime is unlikely to come without blood shed. The leadership will not go quietly. And like leaving any abusive relationship, the most dangerous time, the critical point at which your life is in the most danger, is when the abuser feels that they are losing power. This is when they will lash out with violence. But what is the alternative? A new generation of children born under a violence, misogynistic, oppressive, failed regime?

But if not now, when?

It is likely that if a movement rose up in Iran, that their would be political support from the USA and Israel and possibly other countries from behind the scenes, but it’s unlikely that any other country will do the job for them.

I hope that this is the nudge that the Iranians needed. I hope that they have been mobilising in secret, preparing for this very moment, so they can rise up and take their country back. I hope that ethnic and tribal groups are able to put differences aside and use their sheer numbers to overthrow the regime that has held them hostage. I hope the the USA and Israel have caused enough damage that the regime is weakened, enough for the people to take the streets in great numbers.

I hope that this is the start of a new era of The Middle East. One of freedom, prosperity and stability.

1.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/iran-population/

2. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022

3. The United States lost a total of 2,459 military personnel in Afghanistan. Of these, 1,922 were killed in action, and 20,769 were wounded in action

4. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/war-with-iran/

5. https://www.dw.com/en/iran-what-are-the-chances-for-regime-change/a-72995153